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USA only.

Two quick graphs.


The first shows the USA trajectory of infected numbers. It is rough. The USA cases are Accelerating faster than any other country right now. We stood blindfolded for too long and now we are beginning to reveal the magnitude of the outbreak. These numbers are going to get really big over the coming week.


The rapid rise in cases reflects infections that occurred before most places in the US restricted contact by closing schools etc, and encouraging people to stay home. We may (I hope we do) see the results of this effort in the data a week or two from now. For everyone out there who is trying their best, these data show you why you are being asked to do that. Keep it up and this trend may change for the better.



The second chart is influenza like illness and flu positive tests throughout the USA. Typically influenza positive cases (green) and ILI activity track each other.


If flu activity is up, ILI is up.


If flu activity is down, ILI will be down.



In the most recent data, many states have broken the flu activity trend trend. ILI activity is increasing (blue), but flu activity is decreasing. This could simply be more people seeking medical help thinking they are infected with the virus. But it could also be demonstrating more covid19 cases in our communities.


Remember that what we do today, restrictions on movement etc, will take at least three weeks before we see any effect in the data.

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