I saw your estimate on CNN. Here’s something I posted on Facebook in answer to a friend’s prediction. I’m assuming other venues than just the BOK.
“No way to separate it from the impact of reopening which affects far more people and a lot of the attendees will leave for places other than Tulsa. If you assume .25% currently infected (mix of US and Oklahoma rates) and 50,000 attendees you have 125 infected persons. If we assume Ro of 10 (quite high) over the duration of the rally that results in 1250 infections of which 80 to 90% will not be confirmed. Unless it ends up being a real superspreader event it is unlikely we’ll see a noticeable effect.”